Buy/Sell Quick Reaction Week 1

Football is back! Before you start your victory laps on all the players you correctly touted all offseason make sure you take some time to evaluate what really happened in week one.

Historically I find that people are not reactionary enough to the initial weeks of the season in their roster moves; so this year I’ve decided to dive in and see what immediate actions I think we can make to improve our rosters.

**Note that some of these will only apply to redraft as dynasty managers will not be likely to move off of players so quickly**

Expected Points

I have found that the simplest way to evaluate players in week 1 is by comparing the number of points they should have gotten vs. how many they actually got. This metric commonly referred to as FPOE or Fantasy points over expectation uses the weighted opportunity the player got to determine what that converts to historically in terms of fantasy production. I’m going to couple that with Draft ADP to try and identify players that we can make transactions on in our leagues.

Buy-High

Players that hit right out of the gate, but that received a greater than expected weighted opportunity share in week 1. These players scored a great number of fantasy points while also having an FPOE near 0.

PlayerTeamPositionPPR PointsFPOE
Jamison CrowderNYJWR24.53.3
Russell GageATLWR20.40.8
John BrownBUFWR19.00.3
Logan ThomasWASTE13.70.3

Buy-Low

Players that in most cases underperformed in week 1, but that I still feel we have good reason to believe that it was an anomaly. Some of these players experienced bad luck with an FPOE significantly under zero. Had things broken differently for them we would be having an entirely different conversation. The other players listed were drafted highly such as Austin Ekeler but didn’t perform as expected. In these cases, there was not a significant incursion from a teammate that gives me pause.

PlayerTeamPositionPPR PointsFPOE
Odell BeckhamCLEWR5.2-9.4
Aaron JonesGBRB17.6-7.9
D.J. MooreCARWR9.4-6.2
Kareem HuntCLERB12.1-4.5
Allen RobinsonCHIWR12.3-4.0
Keenan AllenLACWR7.7-4.3
Joe MixonCINRB8.1-3.6
Cam AkersLARRB5.3-3.4
Dak PrescottDALQB20.3-1.4
Mike EvansTBWR7.2-1.2
Austin EkelerLACRB9.7-1.1
Cooper KuppLARWR8.00.6

Sell-High

These are players that blew up in Week 1 but experienced favorable luck with an FPOE above 0. These are not necessarily players I don’t like moving forward, but you may want to test the waters a bit to see what your options are in a trade.

PlayerTeamPositionPPR PointsFPOE
Russel WilsonSEAQB3517.1
Adam ThielenMINWR3116.8
Robby AndersonCARWR25.512.0
Chris CarsonSEARB24.610.8
Nyheim HinesINDRB27.310.6
David JohnsonHOURB19.910.2
T.J. HockensonDETTE16.67
Malcolm BrownLARRB26.05.9

Sell-Low

Hitting the panic button… I don’t generally advocate for selling a player after a bad week, but sometimes special circumstances arise. You will need to cleverly package these players into bigger deals to avoid giving up the game.

PlayerTeamPositionPPR PointsFPOE
Nick ChubbCLERB7.61.6
Le’Veon BellNYJRB6.61.2
Rob GronkowskiTBTE3.1-1.8

You can follow me on twitter @maatspencer. Let me know if you have questions about my thoughts on any of the players mentioned or omitted.

Also, if you want more in-depth Season-Long or DFS help then checkout AverageJoeNation.com

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