Fantasy Football Recap: NFC South Post Draft
With the dust settling from the NFL Draft, and training camps in full swing. Now is the perfect time to take a look at the post-draft values of each NFL division. We will take a look at each new fantasy-relevant addition and I will also give my current rankings for all of the startable fantasy options on each team. This week we will take a look at the NFC South! Make sure you are following me on Twitter at @JGalt93 as well as the podcast @TheHateful8FF!!!
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have endured a pretty bumpy ride over the last several seasons, but it does look like the future of their offense can be very bright. The Falcons only made one fantasy-relevant pick in this year’s draft but it was easily the most fantasy-relevant player to select. The Falcons selected Bijan Robinson with the 8th overall pick in the draft cementing him as their RB1 for the foreseeable future. Not only is Bijan the RB1 for the Falcons, but he is also the consensus RB1 in dynasty leagues and already a top 5 RB in redraft rankings as well. The QB position for the Falcons is probably the only position I am not thrilled about. Ridder could be a viable streaming option in fantasy but we haven’t seen him show that upside yet. I like what the Falcons have done to surround Ridder with talent but for the time being, Ridder is only a QB3 with upside. The WR position for the Falcons is led by Drake London and that’s about it. London is a top-tier talent that had to deal with shoddy QB play in his rookie season. I like his chances of having more success in his second year in the league. London is a low-end WR2 with an upside in 2023. Outside of London, I am not looking to draft any other wide receiver on the Falcons. Could there be value to be had with Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller, Sure. But knowing when to start them will be almost impossible unless one breaks away from the other and performs consistently for multiple weeks in a row. Both Hollins and Miller are better left on your waiver wire for now. Kyle Pitts hasn’t been what we had expected him to be but I think our overall expectations were entirely too high for Pitts in his first two years in the league. His poor success mainly has to do with injuries and lackluster QB play throughout the last two seasons. Pitts is finally looking like a value now though for the 2023 season. His current 6th-round ADP offers value and upside. As long as his ADP remains the same, I would highly recommend taking him if you decide to pass on Kelce and Andrews. Pitts is a high-end TE1 heading into the 2023 season.
Current redraft rankings:
Desmond Ridder-QB30
Bijan Robinson-RB3
Drake London-WR20
Kyle Pitts-TE4
Carolina Panthers
The overall makeup of the Panthers offense looks totally different from what they looked like just 1 year ago. The main reason for that is a head coaching change and a solid free agency and draft. The two fantasy-relevant draft picks selected by the Panthers were Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (1st round), and Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss (2nd round). Young should hopefully be the answer for the Panthers at the QB position for the foreseeable future. I am not entirely high on him in his rookie season but he possesses the skills needed to be a QB1. Mingo is an interesting prospect whose value exploded once the Panthers selected him in the 2nd round of the draft. Mingo has all the attributes that we want from our fantasy wide receivers with solid size and decent skill. I have high hopes for Mingo in the future but I am not sure he will be what we are looking for early on in his rookie season. I expect him to come on strong as the season continues and his relationship grows with Young throughout the season. Mingo is a fine late-round pick in redraft leagues for the pure chance that he comes out as the WR1 for the Panthers earlier than we may expect. The Panthers have some pieces that are exciting, more for the future than this year. When we are talking about redraft, the main player that I want from the Panthers is Miles Sanders. I believe that he will receive a heavy workload through carries and receptions in 2023. Sanders currently has a 4th round ADP, which I think is a solid value as your RB2/3. Outside of Sanders, I am not extremely high on any of the other positional players. There may be value to be had but honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if there wasn’t. The Panthers upside has certainly increased this off-season but they look to be a few years away from competing in their division.
Current redraft rankings:
Bryce Young-QB24
Miles Sanders-RB19
DJ Chark-WR57
Adam Thielen-WR59
Jonathan Mingo-WR82
Terrace Marshall Jr.-WR90
Hayden Hurst-TE27
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have finally gotten their starting QB in Derek Carr. Although he is not a superstar, he will give the Saints players the reliability needed to succeed. Carr is a solid late-round QB in redraft, especially if you decide to draft Anthony Richardson as an upside play. The Saints had 3 fantasy-relevant draft picks in 2023. Those players were Kendre Miller, RB, TCU(3rd round), Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State( 4th round), and A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest (6th round). Miller is the most intriguing out of the prospects. He has the skill, the size, and the draft stock needed to succeed. With the impending suspension of Alvin Kamara, Miller’s stock should rise even more. If Kamara is suspended, I like the combination of Miller and Williams as values heading into the season. I would bet that both would offer high-end flex upside while Kamara is gone. Once Kamara is back, I like Kamara and Williams as high-end flexes on a weekly basis. They both offer pass-catching ability and have a higher value in full PPR leagues. The Saints WR group is probably the best that we have seen lately. Chris Olave is an up-and-coming superstar and his current ADP might be seen as his ceiling but I think he could be a top-10 WR this year if everything went right for the Saints. Michael Thomas has been a disappointment since his WR1 season. He has been riddled with injuries and we might finally be seeing him “healthy” in 2023. Thomas is also finally at a discount with an ADP of 113 or WR48. If that ADP sticks, I would be fine taking Thomas for WR depth/as a flex value. The tight end position for the Saints certainly is filled with talent but it may be almost too much. Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, and Foster Moreau fill the depth chart and are all capable of being a team’s TE1 if needed. The fact that the Saints have all 3 is great for real football but limits the ceiling of all three for fantasy. If I had to bet on one being more consistent than the others, I would bet on Juwan Johnson. He showed last year that he can be utilized heavily and exceeded everyone’s expectations of him. Hill can be a sneaky late-round TE option as we have seen his utilization in previous years as a gadget player for the Saints. I wouldn’t have high expectations for any of them though, unless we see one completely take over the position for the Saints. The Saints have certainly come a long way since Drew Brees retired, it will be interesting to see how great of an impact Derek Carr has on the team in 2023.
Current redraft rankings:
Derek Carr-QB19
Alvin Kamara-RB30
Jamaal Williams-RB36
Kendre Miller-RB49
Chris Olave-WR14
Michael Thomas-WR39
Rashid Shaheed-WR68
Juwan Johnson-TE14
Taysom Hill-TE22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A year after Tom Brady’s “return” to football, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outlook for this season is looking pretty bleak. The Buccaneers made two fantasy-relevant picks in the 2023 draft. Those players were Payne Durham, TE, Purdue (5th round), and Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska ( 6th round). Neither should be on your immediate fantasy radar as both will be deep down at their respective positions on the depth chart. They would purely be late-round dart throws in your rookie drafts this year. The QB position for the Bucs is once again a conundrum. Baker Mayfield has the experience and draft capital to win the lead role but we have seen what he has been able to do over the years. Kyle Trask on the other hand doesn’t have the experience and was a 2nd round pick. I would bet that Baker will win the job but eventually, Trask will get his chance. The Bucs will need to see what they have in Trask before they head into next year’s draft. Baker will most likely go undrafted in redraft leagues but he could be seen as a bye week fill if things go well for him and the Buc’s offense. The RB room for the Bucs is a little less crowded than 1 year ago and has a bit more upside as well. Due to Leonard Fournette not resigning with the team, Rachaad White looks to be the lead back for the Bucs heading into 2023. White has all the attributes needed to be a 3 down back and I like his potential this season. That being said, I am not entirely high on the Bucs overall though. My main concern for the Bucs is QB play and their ability to get into the red zone. Those two factors combined with a middle-of-the-pack OL have me hesitant to put too much confidence into White this season. White should be a low-end RB2 at the very least with upside in full PPR leagues due to the number of targets he should receive. The WR group is solidly filled and should be all around the healthiest it has been in quite some time. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Russell Gage headline the group for the Bucs this season. I am considerably concerned about Godwin and Evans potential production with Baker or Trask under center. It is hard to tell how consistently they will be targeted or how valuable their targets will be. I have neither of them ranked as WR2’s this year, this is the first year where that has been the case.
I am highest on Godwin due to his usage all over the field, whereas I am less confident in Evans as a field stretcher. Both should offer high-end flex potential this year with an upside if things were to work out at the QB position. I would assume that Godwin will provide you with a safer floor with a decent ceiling and Evans will offer a low floor with a massive ceiling that will be impossible to predict. Otton is an interesting late-round tight end heading into 2023. The Bucs are finally without Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, which leaves Otton as the most capable tight end on the roster. I would be more excited for Otton if he had a competent QB, but as the 3rd/4th passing option, I am not too optimistic. Otton is worth a gamble as a last-round TE in redraft but I would prefer to pick him up off the waiver wire once we see him perform.
Current redraft rankings:
Baker Mayfield-QB32
Rachaad White-RB23
Chris Godwin-WR26
Mike Evans- WR32
Cade Otton-TE33
