Last Minute DFS Take: Week 2 (DraftKings only)
Cash Games:
QB
Josh Allen BUF ($7900)
The overall top option, Josh Allen has a slightly depressed price for being probable overall QB1. Coming off an abysmal game in Week 1, Allen has an underweight tag, but we can take advantage of recent sentiment and adhere more to our pre-season rankings. He’s elite, his rushing keeps his floor safe, and he’s coming off a bad game. In cash, he can be naked or paired, I like him paired with 1 WR max (especially Diggs) and am okay with a Kincaid stack in GPP.
RB
Joshua Kelley LAC ($5000)
DraftKings algorithms aren’t playing around with the price. $5k is nothing, but Ekeler has been ruled out, and Kelly received an identical 16 carries to Ekeler’s last week. I suspect he’ll be too heavily owned to differentiate in GPP, but he’s an auto-pick for cash. He’ll produce, and it won’t be too sexy, but it will work in a game projected to play over 46 points.
David Montgomery DET ($5800)
I want Detroit players this week. They aren’t all created equal and Jahmyr Gibbs is the bigger upside player, but Montgomery currently has an incredible role. He’s an RB1 priced as a backup. He doesn’t have the bigger upside role because Gibbs is already the lead on passing downs, and nobody suspects Montgomery will be able to repeat Jamaal Williams’ league-leading rush TD numbers. Still, I’m not ignoring the starter in one of the slate’s highest-scoring games.
WR
I’ll preface by saying I’m not confident in cash WRs. I don’t know what’s going on here, and when building lineups, there’s a 100% chance I’ll have an RB in my flex. That said…
Zay Jones JAX ($4700)
At this price, he’s ideally your WR3. I’m certainly not out on Christian Kirk, but Jones seems to have the better weekly role. He’s solid, but cash only. We’ve known enough about Zay Jones to rule him out for anything but cash, but I’m also making a general bet on JAX being better overall than the field believes. I want to grab that opportunity while it still exists before the betting markets get wiser.
KJ Osborn MIN ($4100)
Your flex, or again, a WR3, Osborn is a money-saving WR that allows you to build from better RBs in your cash lineups. While I fully expect Addison to be the more productive WR not named Jefferson, we can take advantage of Minnesota’s propensity to air it out while easing in their rookie. Osborn is so unsexy, but he had 12 targets in Week 1 and has built a relationship with Cousins. He’s good for a solid floor projection at a cheap cost to put you over any head-to-head matchup.
TE
Luke Musgrave GB ($3200)
Nobody is a fan of rookie tight ends, but this is simply a misprice by DraftKings. He’s the 27th-ranked TE by price and he caught what should have been a walk-off TD in Week 1. I’m not saying that’s the reason to buy him now, I’m saying save your money here to buy the individual who might be the best pass-catcher on GB’s field against Atlanta in a dome.
D/ST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3200)
Spending up on defense is okay in cash, but TB is a great bet to pay off at price. Justin Fields can go off against this defense, while also providing ample opportunity for the opposing defense to rip fumbles or INTs. Look, Fields holds the ball for WAY too long, CHI was the stone-worst team last year, and they did not look great hosting GB last week. Don’t overthink it.
Tournament Play
QB
Joe Burrow CIN ($6900)
One criterion I focus on for QB is the home favorite, and that is Burrow. Another great criterion is a player coming off a poor performance. Burrow is so elite and he probably has the highest ceiling of anybody in the league, especially at DK that awards points for 300-passing-yard games. He’s a high-scoring player, the best pocket-passer in the league, and he’s in a high-scoring game priced under $7K. One obvious drawback to Burrow is his limited stacking variation. I’m a big fan of double-stacking Burrow, and anybody else following suit will likely pair him with both Ja’Marr and Tee Higgins. I’m not so worried about this as Week 1 left a sour taste in drafter’s mouths, which should limit exposure. Go for the potential.
Daniel Jones NYG ($6000)
Danny Dimes is my “spend down” option, but with Burrow only $900 higher, I’m likely to spend up on the position anyway. However, if you’re focusing on WR and RB and find yourself scrapping just a bit, I think Danny Dimes is the answer. Although I prefer a home-field advantage, it doesn’t hurt playing the QB against what is probably the worst team, especially after Jones came off of one of the most statistically atrocious games of his career. As a bonus, there are so many mediocre options to stack with that you’ll be virtually uncontested if Jones hits. That said, his most popular stacking option, Darren Waller, is also my favorite. So if you feel you need to differentiate from the crowd, stack with either Saquon or a random WR.
RB
Tony Pollard DAL ($7500)
Occupying the 6th-highest RB price, Pollard isn’t cheap, but he’s still falling short of my season-long rankings. I think Pollard is underrated this early in the season and I’m making a bet he’ll be the 3rd-highest priced RB consistently by year’s end. Top that off at his home field and the favorite, not only is Pollard locked into an unfailing role, but he has the upside to push him over similarly priced RBs like CMC, Saquon, and the untested Bijan Robinson.
Jahmyr Gibbs DET ($6300)
Everybody is going to be attacking the SEA-DET game as it projects to be one of the highest-scoring. However, I think Gibbs is going to get left behind. As the 13th-highest-priced RB in the week, Gibbs certainly isn’t a write-off, and his price is a bit much especially coming off of an uninspiring game for a rookie who garnered so much hype. I have nothing against Montgomery (obviously my cash game play), but Gibbs has the better potential and should receive the more valuable looks. He’s a potential Goff stack, or a bringback if you’re looking to start Seattle players.
WR
Davante Adams LV ($7600)
My favorite WR1 option, Adams has always had scorching potential and I don’t think this has always been because of QB play. Adams earns his targets. Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out, which makes me more nervous than confident in Adams because I think he’s going to be super popular. Adams would have been on my radar without the Meyers injury. Early in the season, I’m a big fan of playing WRs on away games and as underdogs. Vegas won’t catch up for a while, but what we do know is that Adams is insanely talented and priced just too low in the mid $ 7k to pass up on. He’s your WR1, and you don’t need to stack him, he earns enough of the target share to carry himself without the QB following.
CeeDee Lamb DAL ($7700)
Although I’m not as confident in CeeDee as I am in Davante, I’m so optimistic that the field will be absolutely off of him that he becomes the perfect high-cost leverage play. CeeDee has previously demonstrated a target-share dominance that he’s locked not only into a league-best role but also a potential explosion opportunity. The BIG fear this week, is that the Jet’s staunch defense is going to cause too many problems to produce. My advice is that if you’re packing too many highly-owned RBs, be confident spending up on an unpopular WR who has such massive potential he could be a slate-breaker. CeeDee is your GPP path to playing cash game lock Josh Kelley.
TE
George Kittle SF ($5300)
I’d say either punt down or spend up at TE. There is no middle ground. Unfortunately, the punt option is going to be Luke Musgrave, who is the best cash option, but he won’t break the winning lineup in GPPs. Kittle, on the other hand, offers the boom-bust potential to greatly outpace his price. Look, we don’t know when Kittle will hit, but he’s an ideal tournament player because of the inconsistency of his games. Kittle had a single-digit fantasy performance in Week 1, and he had seven in 2022. However, he also had 8 double-digit games (4 of which went over 20 points, 1 of which went over 30) in the same span. You’re not always going to hit Kittle’s monster weeks, but he IS going to have them, and you better grab him when nobody else wants to.
D/ST
Las Vegas Raiders ($2200)
Without a doubt, the best way to pursue defense in tournaments is to select the highest variant plays. Is the field playing it? DENIED. Are they expected to win? DENIED. Are they at home? DENIED. The Raiders occupy the bottom spot, at $2200 they are essentially free and they open up your lineup to pay up and better positions. Also, the Raiders have the potential to pay out big, even losing big, as Josh Allen has a propensity to give the ball up where he shouldn’t. Not a cash game pick, but the Raiders D/ST potential is overweight for its price. *note* I consider D/ST exclusive from all other same-team picks. If I play Davante, I’m not playing Raiders on the same lineup. In that case, I’m leaning toward Washington or Baltimore D/ST.
A Lineup I’m Playing This Week
QB: Dak Prescott
RB1: Tony Pollard
RB2: Javonte Williams
WR1: CeeDee Lamb
WR2: Allen Lazard
WR3: Zay Jones
TE: George Kittle
Flex: Darnell Mooney
Def: BAL Ravens